Question:

Afghan Taliban sources have reported significant progress in their six-day negotiations with US envoy Zalmay Khalilzad in Doha, and that America will withdraw its troops within 18 months after the agreement is concluded. Although the Doha agreement remains a draft mentioned in statement here and there, and is not binding yet, and that another round of negotiations will be held on 25 of this month 2/2019 as reported by Reuters on 27/1/2019… But the central question remains: Did the Taliban fall after these long years of jihad in the American trap? How did that happen? And where are things heading? Jazak Allah Khair.

Answer:

At the beginning I want to remind you of the answer to the previous question entitled “America’s Strategy in Afghanistan” on 16/8/2017 in which we showed that America and its Atlantic allies have failed to achieve military victory in Afghanistan, and that many of the Afghan areas have already become under Taliban’s control. We also revealed the agent Afghan government’s inability to fight this American war, and that it is barely controlling the capital and some other regions. We also mentioned in the answer to the question that America – Trump is reviewing its policies in Afghanistan, “This review is going towards a great cooling of the Afghan arena, limiting the American presence in military bases and using them at risk, and showing its mission as if it is against ISIS”… and we added: “To facilitate the temptation for the Taliban to accept, America will return to revitalize the role of Pakistan to show that the new military leadership in Pakistan is softer and more sympathetic with the Taliban to push them to sit and negotiate with the puppet government in Kabul and to share power with the American political system in Afghanistan.… After America realized the narrowness of its options in Afghanistan and the bankruptcy of the Indian option, it resorted to the negotiation with the Taliban in the hope of its integration in the US government in Afghanistan, and it has used its agents in the Pakistani government to drag the Taliban leaders to negotiations. However, all those attempts failed; America did not succeed militarily or politically on the subject of Afghanistan.” End quote. But America did not despair of achieving this depending on its agents in the region, especially as America’s suffering in Afghanistan, militarily and financially, gave sleepless nights… Reviewing of the US crisis in Afghanistan it shows the following:

First: America is suffering from huge debts threatening its economy, which was exposed to the crisis in 2008 and continues to have repercussions, and believes that it spent on wars in the Middle East, i.e. in the Islamic countries, equivalent to seven trillion dollars and did not get anything in return, as President Trump said in his Twitter account on 22/1/2017: “After having foolishly spent $7 trillion in the Middle East, it is time to start rebuilding our country!” The BBC quoted the US Forbes Magazine as saying on 9/1/2016. “The war in Afghanistan has cost America up to $ 1 trillion and $ 70 billion, in addition to the killing of more than 2,400 US troops, the injury of tens of thousands of people with permanent deformaties and disabilities, and despite these human and financial losses, America has failed to eliminate the movement.”

Second: After America’s failure to eliminate the movement militarily, it saw that there is no way but to drag the Taliban to the negotiations as the only American option to get out of the Afghan war without showing defeat… This option became the American strategy in force in Afghanistan, what confirms this is US State Department’s appointment of Zalmay Khalilzad on 5/9/2018 as its envoy to Afghanistan with a specific mission: “The US State Department summarized in a previous statement the task of Khalilzad, of coordinating and directing US efforts aimed at ensuring Taliban’s presence in the negotiating table.” (Turkish Anatolia Agency, 12/1/2019). Therefore, America followed this single option, to push the Taliban and pressure them to sit at the negotiating table. This American vision to exit the Afghan war is not new, America has tried at first to establish a line of negotiation between the Taliban and the regime, but failed. Thus, negotiations shifted to be with America, despite it wanted it between the Taliban and the Afghan regime, but the Taliban rejected it, because it views the government as an American puppet and then it agreed to negotiate with America, although it is the founder of that regime.

Third, it is worth noting that America, in order to convince the Taliban to enter into peaceful negotiations, has created a climate for this in its malicious way. It has carried out internal operations in Afghanistan and in the regional by its agents and other non-agents around Afghanistan:

1- The focus of US raids on the leaders of the Taliban, especially those who rejected the negotiations: “US officials said that the United States launched a drone attack on Saturday against the Afghan Taliban leader Akhtar Mansour… The Pentagon described him as an obstacle in the face of peace and reconciliation between the Afghan government and the Taliban” (Dunya Al-Watan, 22/5/2016). That is to say he was targeted for rejecting the negotiations, and this was during the Obama administration. America continued in the same policy during the Trump administration. “NATO’s Support Mission, said in a press release on Wednesday evening: “Two Taliban commanders were killed in Kapisa province in a US raid to support the Afghan Special Security forces in Tajab district on July 22.” (Russian Sputnik News Agency, 25/7/2018). There was another incident in which another Taliban commander was killed: “Col. Dave Butler, spokesman for US forces in Afghanistan, said: “We can confirm a US air strike conducted yesterday, resulted in the killing of the Taliban leader, Mullah Manan,” adding: “We drive towards a political solution” (CNN Arabic 2/12/2018)

2- Iran has extended its hand to the Taliban. The latter believed that Iran was a “state hostile to America.” Some of its leaders resorted to it. It did not realize that the assassination of its commander, Mullah Akhtar Mansour, happened just as he was coming back from Iran, and on its borders, was probably by an American-Iranian coordination, Taliban continued to trust Iran… while Iran only pushed it only towards the political solution with America: “Iran said that representatives of the Afghan Taliban held negotiations with Iranian officials in Tehran on Sunday, as the Islamic Republic seeks to push peace talks in the neighboring country to curb the influence of other Islamist groups.” Bahram Qasimi, a spokesman of the Foreign Ministry said on Monday that the talks took place with the knowledge of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and are aimed at drawing up the parameters of negotiations between the Taliban and the Afghan government. (Euro News, 31/12/2018)

3- Qatar has opened an office for the Taliban in Doha, so the latter thought that Qatar’s recognition of the movement strengthens it, but Qatar has publicly stated that this office is open in coordination with America for negotiations with the Taliban. During its crisis with the siege countries, Qatar said: “Former CIA director David Petraeus’ statements are sufficient to say that the meeting of the Taliban and Hamas in Doha was at the request of the US government, which in itself proves that Qatar did nothing to hide, and that was with the knowledge of everyone and not behind their backs… The presence of Hamas and the Taliban in Doha was at the request of the United States of America to find a way out of the Palestinian cause and the Taliban.” (Qatari Al-Sharq Newspaper 04/07/2017) Qatar has fooled that Taliban that it is on its side and supports it, so Taliban fell in the trap. As the crisis intensified on Qatar from the countries of the siege, it begged the Trump administration to paid its money to protect its regime, Qatar, an English agent, increased its approach to America and pushed the Taliban to the negotiations, in the hope that the Trump administration would ease the Saudi risks from it… Thus America made the issue of its service by pushing the Taliban to peace negotiations, making it a competition between rival states in the Gulf. The UAE competes with Qatar to drag the negotiations to the city of Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia to Jeddah. Reuters quoting a Taliban military commander participating in negotiations, who asked not to disclose his name: “In fact, the differences between Saudi Arabia and Qatar have completely destroyed the peace process,” he said, “The Saudis are pressing us unnecessarily to declare a ceasefire…” (Russian Sputnik Newspaper, 14/1/2019), and with this tension, which is apparent in contradiction and difference, the Taliban found itself strapped with three Gulf cords, with apparent contradiction, but with one direction, the negotiations with America. America’s agents in Saudi Arabia compete with the British agents in the UAE and Qatar to serve America and obtain its satisfaction, but during this competition in falsehood entrapping Taliban and unifying its orientation towards the American negotiations and a political solution is the target. Britain does not oppose Qatar’s approach as a defense of the Qatar regime, and the UAE has been put by Britain on the front lines with America’s agents for other purposes.

4- As for Pakistan, to Taliban it is the pivot, after abandoning the movement and the fierce battles launched by its army against the Pakistani Taliban, Pakistan started to soften the atmosphere with the movement and increased contacts with it, with the arrival of Imran Khan as prime minister of Pakistan on 25/7/2018, and his statements that show closeness to the Taliban, more circumstances are created to increase Taliban’s trust in him, not realizing that it is a trap set up for making it enter in the US negotiations. Thus Taliban fell in the trap, or “made itself fall in the trap“ and is bitten twice from the same hole, the government’s hole that only implements the US policy: it supported it in 1996 for the Afghan Taliban to rule, and then abandoned it in front of Bush the son‘s attack in 2001 and beyond. It even participated in America’s attack by pursuing the Taliban inside Pakistan… Now that America failed to eliminate the Taliban and decided to return to negotiations as the only option, to resolve and maintain its influence in Pakistan, Islamabad went back to building its old bridges with the Taliban, but with the sole aim of implementing the new American strategy and maintaining US influence in Afghanistan. The Taliban therefore fell into the hole again! Although things are clear and not hidden: Pakistani Prime Minister, Imran Khan said on Monday that US President Donald Trump has asked for his help in the Afghan peace process, Geo news quoted Khan as saying that he “received a letter from the US president earlier in the day, in which he asked Pakistan to play a role in the Afghan peace talks, and help bring the Taliban to the negotiating table.” (Russian Sputnik news agency, 3/12/2018)

And then the Pakistani Prime Minister will meet in two days the US special envoy Khalilzad in Islamabad, stressing the progress of Pakistan in the American plan in Afghanistan, “for his part, Imran said that “Pakistan wants a political settlement for peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan” (Masrawi 5/12/2018). The Prime Minister Imran Khan said on Tuesday that his country will do its best to promote the Afghan peace process, adding that his country has contributed to the dialogue between the Taliban and the United States of America in Abu Dhabi recently. (AlYoum7 18/12/2018). Imran himself revealed on his Twitter on 19/11/2018 his defense of his service to America, he said: “Pakistan chose to participate in the US war on terrorism, Pakistan suffered 75 thousand casualties in this war, and lost more than $ 123 billion of its economy, while US aid was only $20 billion.” Pakistan’s former defense minister, Khawaja Asif, also confirmed the betrayal of the rulers of Pakistan, and he is one of them, he wrote on 19/11/2018 on his Twitter account: “Pakistan is still sacrificing with blood for America, because we are fighting wars that are not ours, we have wasted the values ​​of our religion to make it compatible with American interests and destroyed peaceful nature and replaced it with division and intolerance.” There is no more frankness than this: Pakistan fought a war that is not its war and shed the blood of the sons of Muslims for America… and wasted the values ​​of its Islamic religion to serve US interests… The role of Pakistan in Afghanistan is similar to the role of Turkey and its ruler Erdogan in Syria, and his services to America by exerting pressure on the armed factions and subjecting them to the American solutions, despite the repeated America‘s humiliation to him!

5- These are the local conditions within Afghanistan and the regional movements of America’s agents and non-agents that America used to push firmly the Taliban towards negotiations and political solutions. The Taliban, wherever they turned, to Pakistan or Iran or Saudi Arabia or Qatar or the UAE found themselves on the path of America‘s negotiations to maintain US influence in Afghanistan! The Taliban, however, if they understood have managed America’s pursuit to negotiate with it and the extent of pressure on its agents to do their best using malicious twisted tactics to persuade the Taliban to accept negotiations… if they understood the depth of America’s military and financial suffering in 17 years of their heroic jihad. If they realized America’s insistence on negotiating with the Taliban, even though it labels them as terrorists, as usual, by accusing everyone who resists its terrorism and arrogance as a terrorist… If they understood all this, they will know it is an announcement of America’s defeat in Afghanistan informally. America wants to exit before these defeats crushes it, exposing it as a great state crumbling down. They should have used this and put the pressure on America to expel it with humiliation, rather than giving it the warrior’s rest by going to the negotiations, no one can trust America:

[لَا يَرْقُبُونَ فِي مُؤْمِنٍ إِلّاً وَلَا ذِمَّةً وَأُولَئِكَ هُمُ الْمُعْتَدُونَ]

“They do not observe toward a believer any pact of kinship or covenant of protection. And it is they who are the transgressors” [At-Tawba: 10]

America does not accept the Taliban‘s concessions, no matter what they are through the negotiations only if the American influence remains in Afghanistan, even if the representatives of America smiled in the face of the Taliban, what is hidden in their hearts is far greater!

6- For all this, it is painful that the Doha negotiations, which lasted for six days, is the beginning to progress in the negotiations with the testimony of the Taliban itself:

a- In an interview with Anatolia, the leader of the Taliban, Wahid Mugdeh, said that the two sides agreed a great deal about the withdrawal of foreign forces and that Afghanistan is not a threat to any part of the world. He explained that the movement is seeking a guarantee to the suggested peace process with international protection. He added: “The agreement was not finalized in Doha because of some technical issues and the drafting of the agreement.” (Anatolia Agency 26/1/2019)

b- Reuters news agency reported on 26/1/ 2019, from Taliban officials that: “They agreed on some items with Washington to include the final agreement, and one of these items confirms the necessity of the withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan within 18 months of signing the agreement in exchange for guarantees from the Taliban; not to allow al-Qaeda or ISIS of using Afghan territory against America…” It is clear from the text “not to allow al-Qaeda or ISIS”… that America wants to give the Taliban a place in the system because it required guarantees from it to stand in the face of other organizations, so it wants to use it for this purpose as well.

7- Also the statements of US officials confirm what was stated in the statements of Taliban officials:

a- The US Special Representative, Zalmay Khalilzad, wrote on Twitter: “after six days of talks with the Taliban in Qatar, the meetings which took place here were more fruitful than in the past. We have made significant progress on vital issues.” (Deutsche Welle Arabic, 26/1/2019)

b- Acting US Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan said on 28/1/2019, on peace talks with the Taliban, “I would like to say that the conclusions that have been drawn are encouraging.” (US Al-Hura 28/1/2019)

8- Thus, the draft Doha agreement is a major breach in the wall of the Taliban, which was solid. The agent government worked to weaken it further, and despite some conservative statements from the Taliban that it will not negotiate with the government of Kabul, and the similar US statements that the agreement must be on everything or nothing. However, the rush of the two parties to other rounds of negotiations is based on the momentum provided by the Doha negotiations and the firm push of the agents. Therefore it can be said that America finally after 17 years of war has found a light at the end of the tunnel to get out of its predicament in Afghanistan. Unless the faithful current inside the Taliban rise, destroy this agreement, and make it vanish, and extinguish that light in which America saw a safe way out of the Afghanistan war.