Next phase of Af-Pak strategy and a possible face change in Pakistan

After the 2^nd May incident in which reportedly US “assassinated” Osama bin Laden in the garrison city of Abbotabad, army chief Gen. Ashfaq Kayani and his intelligence chief Gen. Shuja Pasha were completely exposed as US agents.  Their popularity hit rock bottom both in the Ummah as well as in the Armed Forces.  Their treachery was so blatant that for the first time media attacked these sacred cows. This forced Gen. Kayani to undertake a frantic tour of garrisons all across Pakistan and to personally explain his positions to his disgruntled and angry officers. He was even grilled by the junior and middle ranked officers who bluntly asked him as to when, not if, he is going to resign.  The only plea Kayani could take was that Pakistan is too weak economically and militarily to stand-up against America.  According to New York Times Kayani told the officers while addressing in National Defense University, that Pakistan is a “mortgaged” property and “we are helpless”.  But surprisingly just four days ago, the defeated and humiliated general rises from the dead.  Briefing the defense standing committee of the National Assembly Kayani was seen thumping his chest and claiming that we are a nuclear state and not like Iraq and Afghanistan.  He said that Americans will have to think ten times before doing an operation in North Waziristan.  Why didn’t Kayani know these facts ten years ago when he surrendered his life of this world and the Hereafter to the Kafir colonialist power, the US?  Is he a “born again Muslim”? Absolutely not! It is to prepare the atmosphere and build his image for the next phase of Af-Pak Strategy – the negotiations on both sides of the Durand Line.

Pakistan has already conducted operations all across FATA except North Wazirstan and has established its writ in an area, which has been outside the laws and constitution of Pakistan since its annexation.  In view of the strategic economic interests of America in the region, it was of paramount importance that Afghanistan and FATA must be under the writ of a client regime for the Central Asian Trans-National Oil and Gas pipelines to pass through safely. It is well-known that the shortest route for these hydrocarbons to reach warm waters is through Afghanistan and Pakistan.  Whole of Pakistan was under control except the no-go areas of FATA region.  These operations has provided opportunity to assimilate and absorb FATA just like any other region of Pakistan.  The calls to make it a part of Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa province are already on the table.  Hence, after the completion of military operations in FATA (except that of North Waziristan) and building of check-posts all across the region, it was obvious that the political reconciliation process will start.  Hence there is no need for Kayani to show US compliance in public as operations are almost complete and the only thing left is starting the political process of reconciliation with the tribals in order to patrol the area and keep the check-posts there permanently.  This explains the unanimous resolution of All Parties Conference (APC), attended by all assets/agents of America, emphasizing the need to start negotiations with the militants.

Six months ago, there was a report in a popular online newspaper suggesting that the Army and the ISI will look for a palatable leadership who could negotiate with the Tribals and the militants – a politician who has been sympathetic to the Tribals and the Tribals respect him as well.  The article claimed that for this purpose Gen. Kayani met Imran Khan with the help of a mutual friend who happened to be a journalist.  The article suggested that Imran Khan will be given leadership in a possible Mid-term elections or some other political arrangement which the ISI is well experienced to engineer.  Just yesterday, the Election Commission of Pakistan has suspended the membership of 231 parliamentarians including some powerful ruling elites creating a possible political vacuum, which can easily be expanded into a full-blown political crisis.  At the same time, Imran Khan is in the middle of a series of high profile public gatherings and is due to have a large convention in Lahore on 30^th of this month.   Hence the possibility of a face change cannot be ruled out especially when the public anger against the regime and the system has reached its new heights.

As for Afghanistan, US is trying for a political settlement for quite some time now.  America seems to be ready to “play ball” with anybody who is willing to allow US military bases in Afghanistan for unspecified length of time.  This military footprint will help US to counter Chinese and Russian influence in the Central Asia in particular and Eurasia in general it.  US wants Pakistan’s help in Afghanistan and Kayani and Pasha as loyal agents are more than willing to provide it. The apparent war of words between Mullen and Kayani on the issue of Haqqani network is also to pressurize Haqqanis, not Kayani, to come to negotiating table.  Let’s analyze it a bit further.

It is obvious that operations in NW against Haqqani network will not only sever ISI’s ties with the Haqqanis but it will also leave no option for the Haqqani’s but to intensify their retaliation in Afghanistan.  This will create more havoc for the US in Afghanistan which currently they cannot afford to have, especially during Obama’s election year.  Hence, it is just a pressurizing card which US is using against Pakistan knowing fairly well that publically portraying that Pakistan is under US pressure will actually force Haqqanis to compromise in order to save their “friends” in Pakistan from US “wrath”.  Hence there is no real pressure on the US agents, neither are they standing up against their masters, rather it’s just an innovative style to pressurize the Haqqanis and the Taliban to come to negotiating table.  This can also be corroborated through Hillary Clinton’s recent statement acknowledging that US was actually negotiating with Haqqanis via Pakistan just before attack on US embassy in Afghanistan,  which means that Pakistan is already doing its part to help US bail out from Afghanistan and it is the Taliban, including the Haqqani network, who are not completely accepting US demands. Kayani knows that and is in complete sync with the US policy makers.  One should keep in mind that the real pressure on Haqqanis started after Kayani had his two-hour, one-on-one, meeting with Admiral Mullen in Spain, on the eve of 16^th September.  Just four days later, Mullen declared Haqqani netword as “veritable arm” of the ISI (Inter Services Intelligence).  This ‘Nura Kushti ’(staged battle) will not only pressurize the Haqqanis but will also help rebuild credibility for their burnt card, Kayani.  Hence with the Haqqani fiasco, the US is trying to kill two birds with one stone!

As Allah (SWT) said in Qurán that they planned and Allah planned and Allah is the best of the planners.  No doubt US is planning but Allah is also planning and we see His plans taking shape in the streets of Syria, Libya, Yemen as well as in Western capitals such as New York and London.  The whole world is waiting for the change, a comprehensive change which would liberate them from the clutches of Capitalism and bring them to peace and prosperity.  Only Islam and its system can provide this to humanity under the shade of the Khilafah.  The stage is set, is there any sincere and brave person in the people-of-power to seize the moment and become the Saad bin Muaz of this time?

Naveed Butt

The Official Spokesman of  Hizb ut Tahrir in Pakistan

22^nd Oct, 2011